2014 NBA Finals Preview and Prediction: Why the Spurs Will Win the Title Over the Miami Heat

The San Antonio Spurs meet the Miami Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals which begins on Thursday night (Friday morning Australia) with last season’s championship series still fresh on their minds.

Revenge is a good word to describe the Spurs' motivation, but redemption could be more apt term for the veteran crew of Greg Popovich (outcoached by a young gun in Erik Spoelstra); Tim Duncan (missed a crucial gimme lay-up in Game 7); Manu Ginobili (who turned into a turnover machine for most of that series); and the rest of the Spurs (who were one rebound away from clinching Game 6 and the series).

The rebound referred to came in the penultimate game of that series and which led to a Ray Allen game-tying three pointer in that shot that is now famously known as “the shot that saved LeBron James’ legacy” (courtesy of NBA's YouTube account):

It was all but one play obviously. Over the course of that close series both the Spurs and Heat showed how and why they deserved the 2013 title with the latter getting the breaks and overall playing with better composure when it mattered the most.

How will the Spurs fare in the rematch?

A Pair of Reasons Why the Spurs Will Win the 2014 NBA Finals

1. Tougher Road to the Finals – As with recent championship runs, it’s not Miami’s fault that they are playing in the weak Eastern Conference.

The Spurs beat quality teams in the Dallas Mavericks (pushed them to seven games); Portland Trail Blazers (legit up-and-coming team) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (two superstars: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) while the Heat defeated the Charlotte Bobcats (with their best player, Al Jefferson playing on one leg); Brooklyn Nets (did not live up to the hype); and the Indiana Pacers (the lone “contender” in the East).

For the record, the Bobcats-Nets-Pacers have a combined win-loss record of 143-103 (58.1 per cent winning percentage) while the Mavericks-Blazers-Thunder has 162-84 (65.8 per cent winning percentage).

This is of course a double-edged sword; the Heat took the easier path and are not tested at all in this postseason but are fresher because of the same while the Spurs were in a dogfight—except for overwhelming the young Blazers-- on their way to the championship series and that could hurt the rather old legs of most of their key players.

One fact can be drawn from these contrasting paths; the Spurs have been playing at a higher level the past month or so owing to the quality of teams they have met.

2. Depth and Balance – The Heat have LeBron James and a bunch of role players—no offense to sidekick Dwyane Wade and third wheel Chris Bosh. The Spurs have the ageless Tim Duncan, Tony Parker (who is reportedly healthy for Game 1 after an ankle scare), a rejuvenated Manu Ginobili (looking for his own personal redemption after last year’s blah-effort) and a growing and still silently effective Kawhi Leonard.

Those are just the prominent faces. On the backdrop for the Heat, Ray Allen will try to prove once again that he’s the best shooter of all time but after him, who can be a key player for the Heat in this series? Shane Battier can’t shoot (or move) anymore; Udonis Haslem has seen erratic playing time in this postseason; Chris Andersen could be hurting with injuries; Plus, we don’t know which Norris Cole, Rashard Lewis or Mario Chalmers will appear in this series.

The Spurs meanwhile have Boris Diaw (found confidence against Oklahoma City); Patty Mills (found his shooting touch as the postseason went along); Tiago Splitter, Marco Bellineli and Danny Green (who was the 2013 NBA Finals MVP from Games 1 to 5) are the wildcards for San Antonio.

The Spurs offense is deadliest when they strike a balance between the key guys and role players while the Heat relies on the excellence of a LeBron plus the timely contributions of Wade, Bosh. Yes, a Cole or Lewis sighting is possible—and big for the Heat—but majority of the time; LeBron’s play, good or bad, decides Miami’s fate.

"We're happy that it's the Heat," Duncan said before the series. "We'll be ready for them. We've got some experience, obviously, from last year against them. And we'll go back and look at some film.

Before admitting that last year’s ordeal was still fresh in their collective minds:

"And we've got that bad taste in our mouths still. Hopefully, we'll be ready to take it this time."

Believe Timmy, Spurs in six hard-fought games.