The forecast for Australian commodity exports in 2010-11 has been downgraded by $3.8 billion off the back of a poor end to the winter cropping season and lower gold, iron ore and metallurgical coal exports, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

"Despite the lower forecast, the value of commodity exports in 2010-11 is still expected to be a record $211 billion, an increase of 23 per cent from last year," said Paul Morris, acting Executive Director of ABARES.

The value of wheat exports is expected to be around $4.7 billion in 2010-11. This represents a downward revision by around $480 million from the forecast ($5.2 billion) released in September. Similarly the gross value of wheat production at farm gate is projected to be around $5.7 billion in 2010-11, compared with the forecast of $6.7 billion released in September.

"In addition to expected lower production and export volumes from Western Australia, these downward revisions reflect the impact on grain quality of untimely rain on the wheat crop in the eastern states," Mr Morris said.

While the 2010-11 farm export forecast of $30.2 billion is $1.2 billion lower than ABARES' September forecast, it is still an increase of 6 per cent compared with 2009-10. This is due to higher crop production and prices as compared with 2009-10.

Compared with 2009-10, total crop export earnings are forecast to increase by 8.7 per cent in 2010-11 to $16.5 billion. For livestock and livestock products, export earnings are forecast to rise by 2.6 per cent to $13.7 billion in 2010-11, with the effect of higher export prices more than offsetting expected lower production.

For mineral resources, export earnings are forecast to increase by 28 per cent in 2010-11 to around $177 billion. Earnings from exports of metals and other minerals are forecast to increase by 29 per cent to $105 billion in 2010-11, while the value of energy exports is forecast to rise by 26 per cent to $72 billion.

The minerals resources export forecasts represent a $2.5 billion reduction compared with ABARES' September forecasts due to a reduction in the forecast growth in iron ore, gold and metallurgical coal exports, somewhat offset by stronger forecast export growth for copper.

"Nevertheless, forecast increases in export shipments and higher prices for Australian iron ore and coal remain as large contributors to the expected sharp increase in mineral resources exports in 2010-11 as compared to the previous year. Strong export performance is also expected for commodities such as gold, oil, copper and alumina," Mr Morris said.

In response to higher world prices, Australian mine production is forecast to increase significantly in 2010-11. For both energy and metals and other minerals, the index of production is forecast to rise by 10 per cent each in the year.