Independent finance forecaster Access Economics said on Tuesday that Australia would likely return to a budget surplus in 2012/13 but that would be easily eaten up by the following year due to weaker commodity prices.

Access economist Chris Richardson attributed the anticipated budget surplus in fiscal 2013 to China's quick recovery from financial downturn but he warned that it would not be long before China detracts from purchasing its import needs levelled at too high a mark.

Mr Richardson noted that global miners were investing too much to achieve more yields and those additional supplies require more time to reach the market and when they do "coal and iron ore prices will come back down, and lower than the official forecasts would expect them to, and that will drag down what will briefly be a surplus back into deficit."

In reacting to the Access Economic report, opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said that the blames lies in the government should the deficit returns as he scored the federal government's budget policy for merely standing on a house of cards.

Mr Hockey said that the government's fiscal policy is "on the threshold of falling over because the Government is spending every dollar from the mining boom instead of saving to pay off some of the Government's massive debt."

However, Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan downplayed the Access report and maintained that the forecast furnished by the Treasury would stick as he decried Access Economic's apparent tendency "to be professional pessimists about future for growth in the region and in particular for China."

Mr Swan pointed out that the Treasury budget surplus forecast was based on conservative figures as he dispelled any possibility that the numbers released by the government were too optimistic and unrealistic.

Also, Mr Richardson stressed that a rise on Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy rate is almost inevitable but an upward movement of the cash rate next week is still uncertain though he conceded that judging from the latest remarks made by RBA governor Glenn Stevens, the likelihood of a jump in interest rate is not very remote.

He also noted that even if the RBA opted for another pause on the current rate, banks would likely lift their rates in view of the surges seen in the Australian dollar lately as he asserted that the country would definitely see a rate hike and "if it's not next week then it's the following month, and we probably face a couple more in 2011 as well."