All Eyes on Christmas Retail Figures After August Data
Retailers welcomed the second rise in retail figures in two months but many are still worried about Christmas sales.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday the retail figures for August, which show an increase of 0.6%, though department stores and clothing retailing remain in negative territory.
However, unless it is sustained through Christmas, the sector will continue to lag behind other parts of the economy, Australian National Retailers Association (ANRA) CEO Margy Osmond said today.
Mrs Osmond said the positive figures will be watched with interest, but not yet celebrated, by the sector.
“All eyes are on Christmas 2011. This is shaping up to be one of the most important Christmas shopping periods retailers have had for some years. With year-on-year retail growth sitting at 2.1%, as opposed to the average growth of 6.3%, retailers will be hoping Santa has something in his sack for the sector.
“A good Christmas could turn a bad year into an average one, and after the dismal figures in 2010 retailers will be happy with an average year.
Mrs Osmond said some retailers are struggling more than others, department stores have gone from growth of 4.2% on average to a year-on-year spending drop of 3.6%, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing has also dropped from an average of 5.4% to -6.6% - a startling turn around. However, households good retailing is now up 2.2% and food retailing continues to grow, indicating a consumer keen to hunker down at home for the moment.
“These figures tell the real story of what is happening in our sector, which is why two months of moderate growth is not enough to set the champagne corks flying. These two parts of the retail pie will be hoping consumers head in their direction for all their Christmas shopping needs in 2011.
“The good news for NSW retailers is their consumers appear to be climbing back on the spending bus, with the second month where that state has led the way in terms of retail growth. Tasmania also has reason to cheer with a return to positive increases in spending for the past 12 months.
“Retailers are looking forward to the release of the Productivity Commission’s final report into the sector and the government’s response. We hope it will set up a formal process for retail and government to sit around a table together and discuss the future of retailing in this country,” she said.
Mrs Osmond said the possibility of an interest rate cut and almost certainty that rates would not rise led to improved figures and this was reflected in an increase in consumer confidence recorded by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Index.
“Even talk of an interest rate cut is enough to encourage shoppers back to the stores, it has an instant impact on Australian’s attitude to shopping and we hope the Reserve Bank sees fit to give retailers an early Christmas gift by lowering the cash rate before the end of the year,” Mrs Osmond said.