Analysts believe Apple Inc's iPhone business model may be at risk as Verizon Wireless $23.5 billion iPhone purchases will be due this year.

Verizon Communications Inc's contract with Apple Inc will apparently end this year as the deal becomes due. Verizon owes to Apple Inc an outstanding balance of almost $12 billion. A Verizon shortfall of $12 to $14 billion has an estimated value of $4-5 per share.

Nomura believes the situation puts Apple Inc ins in an interesting position since minimum purchase commitments have become an integral part in Apple Inc's iPhone business model.

If Apple Inc waives the obligation of Verizon to pay dues of $12 billion, other mobile operators may come to the conclusion that they will not be punished if the miss paying their iPhone purchase commitments. This can lead operators to reduce marketing support for the iPhone to steer demand away from Apple devices to Android phones which have lower subsidies.

Nomura analysts also believe that Apple Inc will force Verizon, its second biggest customer, to pay for 19 million iPhones it no longer wants. Verizon may be afraid of saturating the iPhone market. If other mobile phone carriers will experience the same shortfalls due to the lower-than-expected iPhone 5 sales, it may be hard for Apple Inc to force all global operators to uphold their commitments.

Apple's bargaining position becomes weak, according to analysts, since Verizon's contract will end by Deccember 2013. If both parties will allow it, Verizon could opt to order 19 million iPhones for the fourth quarter of this year and not sign a contract with Apple Inc when the current contract ends. The company could still cover most of the company's requirements for 2014.

However, Nomura thinks Verizon Wireless will agree to this scenario but paying Apple Inc $12 billion for phones it cannot sell is worse. Apple Inc is in a tricky situation with Verizon. Analysts say the iPhone market share may be subjected to more pressure since iPhone sales have missed initial expectations, giving Apple Inc relatively weak competitive position.

Apple's quarterly earnings release

Meanwhile, Apple Inc is expected to release its next quarterly earnings in less than two weeks. Analysts believe iPhone shipments are going to be a problem for Apple for at least until the end of the year.

Verizon's shortfall is an example of how iPhone 5 sales have not been doing so well. Whether or not Apple Inc can still meet its sales targets for the year remains to be seen as shareholders await the release of the company's quarterly earnings report.

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