AU's Economic boom adds inflation pressure
Solid exports are set to lift the national income by 10 per cent in 2010 while unemployment continues to decline, and inflation will likely become a problem over the next two years, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Speaking at the Moreton Bay Better Business Luncheon at Redcliffe, in Brisbane's north, RBA deputy governor Ric Battellino said on Friday that while it is reasonable to expect strong economic growth, disciplined policy and improved productivity are needed to sustain it.
"Relative to prices of our imports, export prices are at their highest level in 60 years," he said.
"This is generating a large increase in income for the country: we are forecasting that Australia gross income (in nominal terms) will rise by about 10 per cent this year."
Mr Battellino also anticipates the jobless rate to continue descending as business investment firmed up.
"In this environment, we see further growth in employment, probably continuing to run ahead of growth in the labour force, so that unemployment will continue on a downward trend," he said.
Based on the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's July jobless rate, which edged up to 5.3 per cent from 5.1 per cent in June, is only a fraction away from the 5 per cent level generally considered by economists to be "full employment".
Mr Battellino said the current resources boom already climbed to 4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and was predicted to grow significantly in the years ahead, providing a major catalyst to growth.
Mining investment usually ran at about 1 per cent of GDP, and reached up to 3 per cent of GDP in historical mining booms.
Mr Battellino, however said "At present, underlying inflation has fallen back into the top half of the target range after rising noticeably over the second half of 2007 and 2008."
"We expect that it will stay around its current rate for the next year or so but, after that, upward pressure on inflation is again likely to emerge with a strongly growing economy."