Aust job advertisements on the upswing
The total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet rose for the eighth consecutive month, the ANZ Job Advertisements Series shows.
Jobs lifted 2 per cent in December, to an average of 188,614 per week, seasonally adjusted. This follows a 3 per cent increase in November, originally reported as a 2.9 per cent rise.
The number of job advertisements is now 27.4 per cent higher than a year ago. While a strong annual rate of growth, this is still below the historic high of 40.2 per cent that was achieved in May 2007, a time of significant tightness in the labour market.
Moreover, the total number of job advertisements remains 32.1 per cent below the all-time peak achieved in April 2008.
The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell by 2 per cent in December. This follows small rises in October and November. Newspaper job ads are now 13.1 per cent lower than a year ago, although this sharp fall largely reflects the base effects from unusually high newspaper job advertising in December 2009.
Encouragingly, the number of internet job advertisements rose by 2.3 per cent in December. This is a modest deceleration from the 3.1 per cent growth recorded in November. Internet job advertisements are now 30.5 per cent higher than they were a year ago.
"The 2 per cent rise in total job advertising in December suggests that Australian labour demand remained solid over the final months of 2010," ANZ Head of Australian Macroeconomics, Katie Dean, said.
"Nevertheless, the slowdown in monthly trend growth in ANZ Job Advertisements does suggest that business' hiring intentions are moderating from the highs of earlier this year.
"A moderation in labour demand is unsurprising given the November interest rate rise and the slowdown in Australian economic growth over the second half of 2010.
"Indeed, while the 2.0 per cent fall in newspaper job advertising may partly reflect the structural change towards internet advertising, November's 'surprise' interest rate rise may have also weighed on newspaper job advertising, given heightened concerns over prospects for the (labour intensive) retail sector in the lead up to Christmas.
Dean said adverse weather may have also weighed on job advertising in December.
"In particular, the impact of heavy rains and the higher AUD on tourism and hospitality in the Queensland economy may be important drivers of Queensland's sharp 8.5 per cent decline in newspaper job ads, the biggest fall of all the States," she said.
"The ABS releases December labour force data on Thursday. Solid, albeit moderating, increases in job advertising suggests the Australian economy continues to generate healthy employment growth," she said.
"ANZ forecasts a 32,000 increase in employment in December and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.1 per cent from 5.2 per cent. We consider there to be upside risk to our forecast for employment and note that the markets have consistently tended to under-forecast employment growth over the past five years.
"While the intense flooding in Queensland will significantly impact many Australian statistics over the next few months, these influences will ultimately be largely transitory. As such, markets and the RBA should look through these effects.
"Continuing strength in employment creation, the record terms of trade and record mining investment pipeline will remain front of mind for the RBA. The Queensland floods however reinforce our expectation that there will be no further move in interest rates before Q2 of this year."