Australian dollar outlook 01/02/2011
Australia: The Australian Dollar has regained some lostground overnight as the markets refocussed on economicreports out of the US and other major economies and lessso on developments in Egypt.
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The AUD rallied towards theupper end of recent ranges as safe haven flows from theEgyptian crisis started to unwind Stronger US data, goodearnings results and M & A activity boosted US equitieswith the S&P recovering around 30% of Friday's losses.
The RBA's interest rate decision will be a big focus todaywith the market unanimous expecting rates to remain onhold at 4.75%.
As was often the case in 2010, theaccompanying Statement will be the main focus, withsignificant interest being on how the RBA sees the postflood reconstruction impacting growth and inflation in 2011with potential for upward pressure in both measurements.
This comes hot on the heels of yesterday's RBA Creditdata released yesterday which rose 0.2% in December,just under forecast, and with personal credit also lowerwhich is a sign households are increasing their savingrates.
So today's Statement seems to be a contestbetween the international outlook versus the impact of thefloods, with our feeling the range relatively tight each sideof USD 1.0000 for the time being and a heavier AUD if thelocal unit cracks parity.
Majors: Civil unrest in Egypt continues to see oil priceswell bid and this dominated proceedings last night with oilfutures prices rising significantly.
That said, EUR/USDrallied after higher than expected Eurozone inflation whichappears to be moving away from the ECB's 2% target,and fuelling speculation that interest rates in this regioncould rise more quickly than the US.
GBP was bought aswell following statements that UK rates could be on theirway to a modest rise. Economic data out of the US struckan upbeat tone and there is a chance there could be aslight rise in the ISM report tomorrow, which suggests theQ4 growth seen last year will continue into 2011.