Australian Dollar Outlook - 02/21/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is holding steady around USD1.0750 as investors wait for news out of Europe regarding Greece's EUR130bio bailout package.
Australia: While the markets are confident that it will be passed, it seems that until an announcement has been made, markets are in a holding pattern.
The lack of overnight movement in our local currency can also be due to the closure of US markets for the Presidents Day holiday. Many were expecting more of a positive reaction to the news out of China on the weekend after they cut the reserve requirement for lenders by 50bps, with thoughts that it may push risky assets (such as the AUD) higher. And while the AUD did strengthen, it has been unable to consolidate any gains it does have above USD 1.0800; which further indicates that investors are still concerned about developments out of the European region.
Today during our local session the focus will be on the minutes from the RBA's February policy meeting; where the RBA surprised the market by keeping interest rates on hold. Many forecasters have now priced out a great deal of easing expectations, but will be keeping an eye on any mention of influences on future cuts.
It is thought that these expectations mainly revolve around Euro-zone developments and continued data out of our region.
Majors: As mentioned above, while an announcement regarding the Greece bailout package is yet to come, comments from Germany's finance minister which voiced his confidence that an agreement would be reached saw the EUR/USD gain some ground.
Equity markets in the region were also buoyed by this news, with gains across the board; the FTSE was up 0.7% to 5945 and Germany's DAX was up 1.5% to 6948. In the US tonight, many will be eager to see the price action given that their markets are yet to digest the news out of China on the weekend. Data released in the region tonight; the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, is unlikely to be market moving but is a useful broad indicator of action in the region.
Economic Calendar
21 FEB AU RBA February Board Minutes
JP Industrial Activity Index
EC EU Finance Ministers Meeting
US Chicago Fed Activity Index