Australian Dollar Outlook - 03/07/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD has been sold off overnight, trading down to a low of USD 1.0525.
Australia: Investor risk appetite diminished overnight due to a number of factors, including ongoing concerns over Greece and the flow on effects of China lowering their growth forecast. During yesterday's local session the
RBA kept its official cash rate unchanged at 4.25% while noting that "should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy. Australian current account data was also released yesterday. The release showed that Australia's current account deficit increased to $8.4bn from $5.8bn in Q3. Base metals were sold off overnight with copper -2.5%, nickel -1.7%, aluminium -2.3%, lead - 3.7% and zinc -3.6%. Gold was also weaker, down 2.1%, to be trading at US$1,670.98 an ounce on the back of a stronger USD.
Oil was also weaker with WTI futures trading down to US$104.83 a barrel as reports emerged that Iran was starting to negotiate on its nuclear program. Today locally we await the release of Australian GDP for the December quarter with the market expecting a rise of 0.8% for the quarter with annual growth of 2.8%.
Majors: Equity markets posted sharp losses overnight with the Dow falling 203 points to post its largest fall this year. The Nasdaq fell 1.4%, the S&P fell 1.6%, while in Europe, London ended down 1.9%, Frankfurt lost 3.4% and Paris finished 3.6% lower. Concerns grew overnight that Greece will fall short of its 75% participation rate that is required to proceed with the debt swap to cut 107bn euros off Greece's debt.
The deadline for this is Thursday and only 20% of bondholders have said they will accept the deal which is worrying markets. On the news front overnight Eurozone GDP reported a fall of 0.3% for Q4 as household consumption fell 0.4% and business investment fell 0.7%
Economic Calendar
7 MAR AUS GDP 4Q
AUS RBA's Lowe speaks to Australian Industry Group
US ADP Employment Change Feb