Bell FX Currency Outlook: Overnight the Australian Dollar fell below USD1.0500 as a fall in commodity prices dragged our local currency to a seven week low.

Australia: The AUD has since stabilised above the USD1.0500, to be currently trading at USD1.0515. Despite a fairly uneventful overnight session with little data released, the AUD took a tumble from yesterday's high of USD1.0580. Commodity prices were the main driver, with gold down almost 1%, copper down 0.6% and aluminium down 0.5%.

The poor Chinese trade data released over the weekend can also be to blame, with the growth in the regions exports falling well below market expectations.

The trade deficit of USD31.5bio is the largest that has been seen in 12 years and while a deficit was expected, it was the figure that surprised the market; especially given the surplus recorded just last month. During our trading session today, the NAB Business Survey is due to be released as well as the housing finance for January. It is expected that despite the rate cuts experienced in both November and December we will see a modest decrease in the housing figures.

Majors: Many investors are holding steady ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, as the recent positive data out of the US and Ben Bernanke's comments a couple of weeks ago, have reduced expectations for any further quantitative easing. While markets aren't expecting any rash movements by the FOMC, many will be paying close attention to the commentary that follows to see where their expectations lie for any future changes.

Equities in the US last night were unchanged as investors wait for the meeting tonight. The Dow Jones was up 0.3% and the S&P 500 was flat at 1371. Out of Europe, it has been reported that Italy is now in a recession, after a second straight quarter of negative growth. This did little to affect the EUR, as investors were focused on the meeting between the EU finance ministers later this week where they will sign off on Greece's bailout.

The Head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker said that there is "no doubt" that their second bailout will be approved later in the week. This saw the EUR/USD trade higher, as concerns surrounding the region begin to recede.

Economic Calendar
13 MAR AU NAB Business Conditions/Confidence
UK Trade Balance
US Advance Retail Sales
US FOMC Rate Decision