Australian Dollar Outlook 04/03/2011
Australia: The Australian dollar has opened slightly weaker this morning after the release of stronger than expected US data overnight.
After trading sideways for most of yesterday, the AUD pushed as high as USD1.0189 on Thursday night before retreating back towards USD1.0120.
While tensions in the Middle East remain high on everyone's radar, better than expected US data caught the market by surprise last night.
Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 20k to a seasonally adjusted 368k, the third decline in the past four weeks.
Applications are now at their lowest level since May 2008.
Analysts are now predicting that this will translate into a strong employment report, which the government is due to release tonight.
With no major data being released in Australia today, we will look to equity markets for direction ahead of tonight's payroll numbers in the US.
Majors: The EUR rallied strongly against the USD and the JPY overnight following remarks by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet who fuelled expectations of higher interest rates in the euro-zone.
The market was surprised by the strong suggestion that interest rates could be raised as early as next month by the ECB President, very much in contrast to earlier comments by the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week.
The EUR rallied towards $1.3967, from $1.3865 a day earlier. In his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, Chairman Bernanke told lawmakers that higher commodity prices could hurt the economy by forcing consumers to spend money on gas instead of on other goods.
A stance that has led the market to believe there remains wariness about raising borrowing rates in the US just yet.
As mentioned above, tonight we have US non- farm payrolls data for February being released.
The market consensus forecast is only 200k, however their have been some suggestions that we could see a result as high as 350k for the month of February.
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