Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is lower this morning due to a drop in sentiment offshore, brought on by worries about Spain's economy and Friday's weak US non-farm payrolls data.

Australia: A weak night in most markets saw the AUD fall one US cent to just below USD 1.0250. European and US equities fell, mainly in response to continued concerns over peripheral euro-area economies. Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields rose 21bp's and 23bp's respectively, which
makes Spanish yields 60bp's higher than just a week ago.

Conversely, US Treasuries and German Bunds rallied, seeing the 10-year German yield reach an historic low of 1.64%. This all led to the AUD being sold to around that 1.0250 level mentioned earlier.

Gold rose, oil fell and base metal prices and soft commodity prices were weaker. Reports are coming out that the IMF is reportedly about to sharply reduce its long-term forecast of China's current-account surplus, and said that commodity exporters (such as Australia) "may be in for a downturn" as commodity prices fall.

Is this a sign of the "old Australia", with a lower AUD, and a more consistent one speed economy? Not in a hurry, as in most respects, the industrial revolution continues in China, which points to the underpinning of mining in Australia, and a still structurally strong AUD.

Locally today, the April Consumer Confidence and February Housing Finance approvals are released, with the latter expected to fall by 5% after a 1.2% fall in January, further emphasising the soft conditions in the housing market. We also see the release of the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book tonight.

We feel the AUD may consolidate here as long suffering Australian exporters get in and take some cover on this recent weakness.

Majors: The US Dollar was essentially unmoved last night as the AUD and NZD were hit hard on concerns written above. Falls in US yields and
weakness showing in the US equity market did not affect the USD.

The Scandinavian currencies and the CAD were weaker. China recorded a trade surplus of US$5.4bn in March. China's imports are becoming more linked to domestic consumption, suggesting their trade surplus will show signs of decline. Getting back to Spain briefly, markets are worried that austerity measures will further weigh on weak growth. Just like Greece?

The Spanish Prime Minister announced further budget cuts yesterday totalling EUR10bn over the next two years, following the most dramatic budget announcement in over 30 years just a week ago.

Economic Calendar:
AUS Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr
AUS Building Approvals Mar
US Fed's Beige Book