Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is slightly lower this morning, currently trading just above USD1.0300, after weaker than expected local PPI figures yesterday, and renewed fears regarding the state of Europe's economy continued the weaker tone overnight.

Australia: All eyes today will be on the release of the local Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter; due out at 11:30 AEST. Yesterday the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in much weaker than expected, falling 0.3% in the March quarter compared to expectations of a rise of 0.5%.

Given that the PPI is a measure of inflation and can influence expectations for the CPI results, markets are predicting that we could see a weak number also released today. Should this be the case, then it is almost a guarantee that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25bps at next week's RBA interest rate meeting for May; and could possibly pave the way for further cuts in the coming months.

Expect the AUD to trade in a tight trading range until the release of the data.

Majors: Risk aversion was certainly the favoured trade overnight after the release of the European PMI data. The results out of Europe were less than pleasing, with the Euro-zone PMI falling in April to 47.4 down from a previous result of 49.1, which indicates that the recession continues to impact the region fairly heavily.

Germany's results were even worse, falling to 46.3 from a previous 48.4. Given that Germany is the most robust economy in the Euro-zone, this result doesn't bode well for the region having a sustained recovery anytime soon.

This uncertainty caused equity markets across the board to fall. In the US the DOW was down 0.8% to 12,927 and the Nasdaq down 1% to 2,970. The losses were much worse in Europe with Germany's DAX down 3.4% and the Euro-Stoxx 50 down
2.9%.

The EUR/USD also fell victim to the data, as well as the political uncertainty in both France and the Netherlands, with the currency pair
trading towards USD1.3100.

Economic Calendar
24 APR AU CPI 1Q
US Consumer Confidence
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
US New Home Sales