Australian Dollar Outlook - 05/03/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian dollar continues to hold up relatively well as buying interest emerges just below USD1.0300.
Australia: Despite the best efforts of the RBA earlier this week, the AUD has been unable to record any decent moves to the downside.
One of the main reasons for the RBA delivering a 50bp cut in official interest rates on Tuesday would have been to try and take some heat out of the AUD and in turn provide some relief for the non-mining sector exporters and manufacturers.
The AUD did have an initial sell-off after the announcement but has been unable to continue the trend, leaving many exporters disappointed.
Australia's official cash rate may have been reduced to 3.75% but the returns on offer in Australia are still quite attractive in comparison to a large part of the industrialised world where official interest rates are still at or close to zero. A move back towards parity in the short term is looking like it might be a tough ask for the AUD without another significant, unexpected event.
Majors: Concerns over the global economic outlook were once again the main driver for financial markets overnight. Weak data releases in both the US and Europe drove the negative sentiment. In the US, factory orders for March were off by 1.5% from the previous month, while the US private sector added only 119,000 jobs in March, sparking speculation that tomorrow night's non-farm payroll release may be weaker than expected.
In Europe, Euro-zone unemployment rose to 10.9% in March and now sits close to a 15-year high. A report on Euro-zone manufacturing showed that manufacturing slipped sharply not only in the struggling economies of Italy in Spain, but also in the powerhouse nations of Germany and France.
Markets are now turning their attention to tonight's ECB meeting to see how or if the Central Bank will act to try and provide further support to the struggling euro-zone economies.
Economic Calendar
3 MAY NZ Unemployment Rate Q1
EU ECB Announces Interest Rates
UK Nationwide House Prices APR
US RBC Consumer Outlook Index MAY