Australian Dollar Outlook - 05/09/2012
FX DAILY REPORT
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Aussie has opened lower across the board this morning following a drop in the Euro, Oil and Stock markets as worries intensify over Greece.
Australia: The local unit drifted lower in yesterday's session as Australia's Trade Deficit was released, worse than expected for the second month in a row at -$1.59B vs an expected -$1.38B. Last night saw the release of the Federal Government's 2012-13 Australian budget.
The Gillard government upheld its promise of a budget turn around after the larger than expected -44.4Bn deficit in 2011-12. A marginal surplus of $1.5B was announced.
Tax cuts to company tax rates did not go ahead and are instead being distributed to households and small business. The Government's commitment to cut spending and return to surplus could provide a case for further interest rate cuts by the RBA with an estimated 0.75 - 1 percent contraction of GDP expected. This will put downward pressure on the Australian Dollar.
Majors: Political uncertainty in Greece has continued to rattle markets overnight. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 1,364 while the DJI fell 0.6% to 12,932. European equities were harder hit, dragged sharply lower by weak sentiment, with the German Dax falling 1.9% to 6,445 and the FTSE 100 falling 1.8% to 5,555.
Voters in both Greece and France rejected harsh austerity measures in weekend polls highlighting the uncertain path ahead for the Euro zone.
The left coalition government in Greece, which finished second in the election, has been provided the opportunity to form government as the New Democracy Party failed to come to an agreement with other parties. Fresh elections will most likely be called in coming weeks.
Gold and Oil fell overnight due to Greece's uncertain political situation. WTI futures were off 0.6% at USD 97.39 with Brent at USD 113,14.
Gold was sharply lower down 2.0% hitting a four month low to close at USD 1605. Base metals were also lower overnight with Copper posting its largest drop in a month of 1.0%.
Economic Calendar
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