Australian Dollar Outlook - 05/23/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: This morning the Australian dollar is over a US cent lower, currently trading at USD0.9790 after comments about the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro currency resulted in risk aversion trading, and in turn, a fall in the AUD.
Australia: Late during yesterday's local trading session, as the European session opened, the AUD strengthened, pushing back above USD0.9900; giving the impression that we could see the AUD push further up towards parity.
This follows on from the last few trading sessions which have seen some calm return to the markets, and in turn some positive gains on equity and currency markets alike.
However, the gains were short-lived after former Greek Prime Minister Papademos said during an interview with the Dow Jones Newswires overnight that preparations are being made in case Greece leave the monetary union. This sparked a sell-off on all fronts; equity markets wiped all their gains made earlier in the session, commodity prices were weaker and in turn the AUD lost over 1%.
Although the AUD is yet to trade significantly below USD0.9800, should we see this occur, then this could see a further pull-back towards the next support level of USD0.9675. With a lack of top tier local data to be released today, we expect that the AUD will continue to trade in a weak fashion until more information can be gleaned during tonight's offshore session.
Majors: While the comments out of Greece overshadowed the market, the OECD released its semi-annual economic outlook. In terms of global growth for 2012, the result remained the same, with expectations of growth of 3.4% however some of the individual countries results varied.
China, and the Euro-zone's GDP growth forecasts have been reduced to 8.2% (prior +8.5%) and -0.1% (prior 0.2%) respectively; whereas Germany, France and the US results were amended upwards.
As mentioned above, the comments from Greece's former president that his country was considering leaving the euro-zone saw the EUR/USD fall below its support level USD1.2710.
Tonight the Euro-zone will once again be the focus as the European Union leaders meet in Brussels for an informal summit where new pro-growth solutions will be discussed. Investors will be intrigued as to whether any firm decisions actually come out of the meeting.
Economic Calendar
23 MAY Westpac Leading Index mar
EU Euro zone Current Account Mar
UK BoE Minutes