Australian Dollar Outlook - 05/25/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: With worries a Greek exit would deepen the euro zone debt crisis and risk aversion continuing to mount this week, the Australian Dollar has continued track new lows.
Australia: Rumours of policy action in Europe provided a brief bounce above USD0.9800 overnight, only to open back at USD0.9760 this morning. Key data out of China, Europe and the US failed to inspire markets with all showing signs of weakening.
Reinforcing the need for stimulus in China, the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI eased slightly in May to 48.7 showing a tough growth environment for smaller manufacturers.
There are no data releases due today therefore we expect the AUD to continue its bearish trend as it reacts to offshore markets.
Majors: Weak factory and business sentiment data in Germany saw the EUR fall to near two-year lows against the dollar at USD1.2514. The currency is down nearly 3.2% vs. the greenback for the year. Rumours the ECB would provide liquidity helped buoy the markets somewhat with the FTSE ending 1.6% higher at 5,350 and the German DAX closing 0.5% higher at 6,316.
The Dow Jones turned higher as a wave of buying emerged going into to close on Wall Street to finished broadly unchanged at 12,350.
Downturns across the board for technology stocks saw the Nasdaq fall 0.4% to 2,839. Oil fell initially following the weaker European PMI read, only to end the session higher over diplomatic talks with Iran. WTI futures rose 1.0% to USD 90.80 whilst Brent ended 1.2% higher to USD 106.60 per barrel.
Economic Calendar
25 MAY JP Tokyo CPI MAY
CH MNI Business Condition Survey MAY
US University of Michigan Confidence MAY