Australian Dollar Outlook - 06/08/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar continued its run higher overnight only to give back gains this morning, as the PBOC cut lending rates and boosted market sentiment early in the session. Australia: The local unit jumped almost half a US cent during yesterday's trade as domestic employment figures beat market expectations.
Employment was up 39,000 jobs, whilst the unemployment rate held at 5.1%. However, keep in mind a recent fall in job advertisements suggests that labour market conditions will likely soften somewhat in the near term.
The AUD rallied to parity for the first time since mid-May - albeit shortlived, as China announced a cut to its interest rate by 25bp to 3.25%.
Authorities also lowered the minimum lending rate for banks and increased their maximum deposit rate in a bid to increase the flexibility of the banking system.
Favourable market moves were later unwound in the session as Fitch downgraded Spain three notches to BBB, and US Fed Chairman Bernanke dimmed hopes for more US stimulus.
In Australia today there is no local news, although RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will be giving a speech at 1:30pm. Whilst Australia has had stellar run in the last couple days, the global outlook has not changed and remains weak.
The dark cloud is still looming over Europe, China is still softening and growth in the US remains modest at best. Importers should be considering some cover at these levels.
Majors: US stocks declined and ended the session almost unchanged as a speech given by US Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress, erased the advance driven by China's first interest rate cut since 2008.
The S&P500 ended barely changed at 1,314.99 whilst the Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended off session highs. Oil prices also fell as Bernanke's speech reduced speculation that the Fed will add more Stimulus or QE3 to the economy.
WTI futures fell 1.7% to USD 83.58 per barrel, whilst Brent fell 1.5% to USD 99.11 per barrel. Gold prices also fell post speech to end 1.8% lower to USD 1,589.71 per ounce. European stocks ended the session higher; although well off from session highs as Bernanke's speech weighed with the German DAX adding 0.82% to close at 6,144.22 and the FTSE 100 adding 1.8% to close at 5,447.79.
Economic Calendar
8 JUNE AU Trade Balance APR
AU RBA's Stevens gives speech to Chamber of Commerce
UK PPI Input / Output MAY
US Trade Balance APR