Australian Dollar Outlook - 06/28/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is slightly higher this morning, currently trading at USD1.0080 ahead of another two day European summit.
Australia: The AUD/USD has been fairly subdued in recent trading sessions as it looks towards tonight's meeting in Europe to provide some direction for the markets.
Strengthening commodity prices and gains on the offshore equity markets overnight have held the AUD at these levels; seeing it knocking on the door of USD1.0100. The crosses have also been a beneficiary, with the AUD/EUR trading close to EUR0.8100, and many of the other cross rates up almost 1%.
We expect that today's trading session will mirror those of recent days; especially given that we are only expecting some second tier local data to be released. Today we have the HIA New Home Sales as well as the ABS Job Vacancies, both for the period of May. Neither of these are expected to have much of an impact on the AUD.
Majors: US equity markets were higher overnight on figures which showed that US durable goods orders rose 1.1% in May. Markets were expecting a result of +0.5%, therefore this was a welcomed result.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, in a meeting with reporters said "I've said for quite some time that I think we should be doing more accommodation than what was adopted". Evans has been arguing that the Federal Reserve should keep policy very stimulative until unemployment falls to 7% (currently 8.2%).
Another two day European summit starts tonight with much work to do. The bailouts for Cyprus and Spain should be finalised and the leaders will also try to develop a solution to the long running debt crisis.
The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, told the Spanish Congress overnight "the most urgent subject is the subject of financing", adding "we cannot fund ourselves at the prices we are paying for very long." He has urged EU partners to use all instruments to reassure markets bring down punitive interest rates.
German Chancellor, Angela Merkel told the Bundestag "I fear at the summit we will talk too much about all these ideas for joint liability and too little about improved controls and structural measures". Markets wait for strong action and hope the "extend and pretend" straws are left at home.
Economic Calendar
28 JUNE AU HIA New Home Sales MAY
EU Euro-zone Consumer confidence JUN
UK Nationwide House prices JUN
US Initial Jobless Claims w/c 23 JUN