Australian Dollar Outlook 07/03/2011
Australia: The Australian dollar opens up trading this morning in the mid 1.0100's after the release of jobs data in the US on Friday, which was close to expectations. 192,000 jobs were added in February, which pushed the unemployment rate down to 8.9%. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest in two years, as further signs emerged that the US economy is continuing to recover. This positive news was dampened by continued tensions in the Middle East, where fighting intensified between Gaddafi forces and rebels. This pushed WTI oil up past US$104 and Brent crude rose to over US$116 a barrel. Geopolitical events have overshadowed the positive jobs data, and this dampened equity markets with markets in Europe and the US all lower. Today Dr Martin Parkinson succeeds Dr Ken Henry as Secretary of Treasury who left on Friday after ten years. In his final speech, Henry predicted Australia's terms of trade would remain high for the next 10 to 20 years. Today the construction index and job ads for February will be released.
Majors: The strength of the EUR continued on Friday as expectations of a rate hike grow from the ECB. The EUR hit 6-week highs against the USD while the CHF continues to be the safe haven currency of choice. The GBP/USD was down slightly as UK house data was weaker than expected. These events saw the AUD cross rates generally trade sideways, although the AUD/NZD has touched an 18-year high as predictions of a rate cut in New Zealand grow. If it was not for the geopolitical events unfolding in the Middle East, currency and equity markets would have reacted more positively to the US data, which saw previous jobs numbers for December and January revised upwards by 30,000 for each month. Factory overtime hit a 3-year high and private payrolls added 222,000 jobs more than the 200,000 forecast. Expect to hear more talk about when rates will rise in the US in the next couple of months.
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