Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is a US cent higher, compared to the same time yesterday, currently trading just above USD1.0300 as risk assets, including the AUD were back in favour, at least early on in the trading session.

Australia: Comments from the ECB regarding a possible euro-zone bailout solution buoyed markets early on, with equity markets and the AUD all stronger. This was however short-lived as poor data out of the US, UK and Europe saw some of the gains reversed.

Yesterday during our trading session all the focus was on the release of the 2nd quarter CPI data, which was basically in line with market expectations. The underlying rate came in at 0.6% while the annual rate was 2.0%; slightly higher than the expected 1.9%.

The underlying annual inflation figure was forecast at 2% (as seen yesterday) by the RBA back in their May Monetary Policy statement. After the release of the data the AUD made a momentary drop below USD1.0200, but almost instantaneously returned to its pre-trading level and slowly increased during the trading session as the large majority of economists believe that the RBA will keep the interest rate on hold at 3.5% the August meeting.

The result yesterday however does give the RBA scope to reduce cuts should things in Europe deteriorate further. We can expect little movement in the AUD today with a lack of local data released.

Majors: What caused the initial rally in stocks across the board overnight were reports that an ECB member Nowotny saw arguments in favor of giving the Euro-zone rescue fund a bank license which would boost the funds firepower in bringing down borrowing costs for Spain and other troubled governments.

As well as a boost for equity markets, this saw the EUR/USD gain; breaking a five-session losing streak with the EUR/USD finding support above USD1.2100 this morning.

As mentioned above, New Home Sales in the US disappointed. For the month of June we saw the figure fall 8.4% for the month which contradicts other recent housing figures. The poor data continued in the UK with the 2nd quarter GDP falling by 0.7% compared to market expectations of -0.2%. This is the worse quarterly contraction since early 2009 and the 3rd consecutive quarter that the UK GDP has contracted.
Economic Calendar
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US Initial Jobless Claims
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