Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar fell on Friday night after US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected and the market began to expect the Fed to begin their tapering of monetary stimulus earlier than previously thought.

Australia: With the AUD almost revisiting its lows of the last three years and trading in the mid 0.9000's after the rise of 195K in jobs data for June
in the US as compared to the predictions of a rise of 165K jobs, the USD continued to strength as bond yields rose in the US as well in the UK and Germany.

In the past when the threat of a reduction in US Fed stimulus occurred equity markets would fall but on Friday all major US equity indices were trading higher.

US government bond yields for the 10 year maturity rose by 21bps to 2.74% which is almost a full 1% higher in yield since May. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 7.6% with the participation rate rising slightly to 0.1% to 63.5%.

Also adding to the positive sentiment for the US and its currency was a revision upward of 70k jobs for the previous two months. In Australia, there are a number of announcements this week that could influence the short term direction of the AUD with ANZ job ads data being released today followed by the NAB business survey tomorrow.

Australia's June labour force data is due for release on Thursday where most analysts predict no growth in employment and the unemployment rate may move a touch higher to 5.6%. Some consumer confidence figures come through on Wednesday as well as some housing finance numbers on Friday.

Majors: With the USD stronger across the board on Friday, the EUR and GBP were all weaker as the comments from their respective central banks
on Thursday were looked at more closely with most analysts believing that their respective stimulus programs would remain accommodative for
longer. With US bond yields rising on Friday the UK and German bond yields rose by 10bps and 7pbs, respectively.

European indices followed a more traditional path and fell on Friday in light of a stronger USD and the threat of further reduction in stimulus by the US Fed. On Wednesday we will see the release of the latest minutes from the US Fed's Open Market Committee which will be closely looked at for further hints on the timing and size of reductions in stimulus in the coming months.

From China we will see some CPI and PPI data from June on Tuesday as well some trade data the next day.
Economic Calendar
08 JULY AU ANZ Job Advertisements m/m Jun
JN Current Account May, Trade Balance May
EU ECB's Draghi speaks in Brussels

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