Australian Dollar Outlook - 08/03/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The local unit has opened lower after a volatile session as more rhetoric and no
firm action from the ECB left markets disappointed.
Australia: The Australian dollar touched a brief five month high against the Greenback as expectations mounted ahead of the ECB press conference. All of this optimism was unwound as the ECB left the door open to take action in the coming weeks with no immediate steps announced. During yesterday's local session domestic
Retails Sales data was released revealing an increase of 0.5% in June as Government assistance packages in Australia began to take effect. Australian Trade balance also released in yesterday's session showed net exports contributed solidly to Q2 growth.
With no local data releases today, we expect the dollar to continue trade between 1.0450 and 1.0500 against the US Dollar ahead of US employment and manufacturing data due tonight.
Majors: The lack of action from the ECB weighed heavily on equity markets with European stocks falling sharply; erasing gains seen earlier in the week.
The German DAX ended 2.2% lower at 6,606 whilst the FTSE 100 ended 0.9% lower at 5,662. Bank and Resource stocks were the hardest hit declining (-6.3%) and (-8.8%) respectively. The Euro currency was also hard hit ending the turbulent session back at USD 1.2149 against the US Dollar after an optimistic rally to USD 1.2381 preannouncement.
Over in the UK, the BOE as expected left rates unchanged at 0.5% with no change announced to its GBP 375bn asset purchase program.
US equities declined overnight as the disappointment spread across markets. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 1,365 with the DJI declining 0.7% to 12,879. Spot gold prices also declined 0.7% to USD 1,589 an ounce with metals and commodities prices also declining. Tonight markets will look to US manufacturing and employment data for
direction.
Economic Calendar
03 AUGUST AU AiG Performance of Service Index JUL
EU Euro Zone Retail Sales JUN
US Change In Non-Farm Payrolls JUL
US Unemployment Rate JUL