Australian Dollar Outlook - 08/23/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar is currently trading around USD1.0500 as comments from the Federal Reserve during last night's offshore trading session boosted optimism in the markets and offset the glum feeling out of Europe.
Australia: Last night saw the release of the last FOMC meeting which gave an indication that the Federal Reserve is ready to deliver another round of stimulus 'fairly soon' should the US economy not show 'substantial and sustainable' signs of improvement.
Given the thin trading conditions, this announcement rocketed the AUD to a high of USD1.0521 giving investors a positive outlook for the future of one of the worlds' largest economies.
Yesterday we saw the announcement by BHP Billiton that they will be scaling back of some of their expansion projects, including the Olympic Dam project. This is a huge blow for the South Australian economy, who was hoping that the project would significantly stimulate growth in the region.
Today we will see the release of the Housing Affordability in the June Quarter, but we don't expect it to have much of an impact on the market.
What could impact the AUD today is the release of China's HSBC Flash PMI for August. Last month's result showed signs that the Chinese economy might be bottoming out, so a further positive result could see the AUD strengthen and head towards USD1.0550
Majors: As mentioned above, the markets in Europe finished lower as reports were released that Angela Merkel said that there won't be any decisions made on Greece until the Trokia completes its assessment of reforms on the region in early September.
This halted the rise of the EUR/USD which fell below USD1.2500 after the announcement. Equity markets were also lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 1.5% and Germany's DAX down 1%.
In the US overnight, existing home sale for the month of July was released and showed a much improved result from the previous month; sales rose 2.3% following last month's fall of 5.4%. This, as well as the Fed's announcement influenced the late rally in the US equity markets, reversing the earlier losses. As a result, the markets were flat with the DOW down 0.2% and the S&P 500 unchanged.
Economic Calendar
23 AUGUST CH HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
EU PMI Manufacturing
US New Home Sales
US Initial Jobless Claims
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