Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/05/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has fallen to fresh six week lows overnight as global uncertainty and concerns over weakness in the Chinese economy erased gains seen yesterday.
Australia: The currency saw a short lived rally yesterday afternoon following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep rates on hold at 3.50%.
The accompanying statement was little changed, although markets are starting to price in a strong risk of an interest rate cut at the October and November meetings if the iron ore price and Chinese data do not start to improve.
Recent Chinese economic activity has been weaker and this slower growth is expected to play a major part in the expected
growth in Europe and other parts of Asia.
In Australia today Q2 GDP data will be released at 11:30am, where quarterly growth of 0.8% and year on year at 3.7% is expected. Short term Aussie weakness is expected to continue.
Majors: The US dollar recorded small gains overnight against both the AUD and EUR. European discussions overnight continued with major leaders in an attempt to finalise the bond buying program planned by the ECB who will be meeting on the 6th September.
No new announcements were forthcoming but Mr. Mario Draghi's proposed option for purchasing 2 and 3 year debt remains at the forefront.
European bond markets rallied on the expectation of an ECB agreement. The US ISM manufacturing survey last night disappointed markets slipping to 49.6 in August from a July figure of 49.8. US equities ended lower on the back of the numbers with the DJIA declining 0.4% to 13,036 and the S&P 500 closing 0.1% lower at 1,405.
European equities were likewise dragged down with the German DAX falling 1.2% to 6,933 and the FTSE declining 1.5% to 5,672. Slowing growth concerns also weighed on oil prices with Brent falling 1.2% to USD 114.3 per barrel and WTI futures falling 1.6% to USD 95.6 per barrel.
Economic Calendar
05 SEPT AUS GDP 2Q
CH HSBC Services PMI
EU Euro zone Retail Sales Jul
US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug 31
For the latest price range visit www.bellpotter.com.au