Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/21/2011
Can the Aussie Hold Its Ground?
The Australian Dollar has held its ground despite the IMF revising global growth forecasts from 4.3% and 4.5% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, to 4% in both years.
Australia: The IMF released its latest six-monthly World Economic Outlook forecasts ahead of this weekend's IMF / World Bank meetings.
The announcement was fairly much as expected and financial markets did pay attention to the accompanying statement that "the global economy is in a dangerous new phase" and "downside risks are growing".
The projections by the IMF assume that European policy makers can contain the crisis, and that US policy makers can strike a balance between supporting the economy and undertaking medium-term fiscal consolidation. As far as Australia is concerned, the IMF has forecast growth of 1.8% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012.
So while the advanced economies are softer, China's growth is expected to be 9.5% this year and 9.0% next year. Looking at the AUD and "what next", the FOMC meeting is critical, and how the market reacts to the Federal Reserve's comments and plans is key.
Expectations are building that the FOMC will announce additional stimulus to the US economy, and whilst this is not entirely
unexpected, the world is waiting in keen anticipation. There isn't any local data today and RBA Deputy Governor Battellino is speaking tonight in New York at a Debt Capital Markets Forum.
We expect the AUD to trade in a reasonably narrow band today ahead of the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting.
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Majors: The EUR managed to stay in recent ranges despite all the rhetoric surrounding the Euro Zone's problems. European equities gained with the market deciding to focus on the emerging news regarding Greece and that it will seemingly qualify for the next tranche of aid.
This followed talks with the Troika described as productive, and after Greece repaid €769m of bonds that matured yesterday helping to avoid defaulting. The S&P 500 closed the session 0.2% lower at 1202, the Nasdaq finished 0.9% lower at 2590, while the DJIA gained 0.1% to 11409.
Base metals had a mixed session but were mostly down in response to IMF global growth forecasts. Soft commodity markets were also mixed. Tonight we see the BoE minutes along with UK public borrowing data for August and then the US has mortgage applications data and existing home sales. The big focus is the FOMC though, with everyone wondering what shape the support for the US economy will be.
Economic Calendar:
21 SEPT AUS Westpac Leading Index Jul
UK BoE Minutes
US FOMC Rate Decision
US Existing Home Sales Aug
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