Australian Dollar Outlook 09/22/2011
The Australian dollar has fallen overnight as pessimism once again pervaded throughout the financial markets.
Australia: Measures announced by the US Federal Reserve overnight to try and further stimulate the US economy were seen by many as disappointing and resulted in a sell-off in risk. Equity markets, commodity currencies and base metals were all pushed lower. The AUD is back down near parity this morning and looking vulnerable to another move lower.
Should further bad news emerge out of Europe in the short term this may just be the excuse the market is looking for to push the AUD back below USD1.0000.
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Providing some minimal support for the local currency were comments from RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battelino, who delivered a speech in New York overnight. Following on from the RBA's September Board meeting minutes released earlier this week, Battelino suggested that the RBA is still quite a way from moving towards an easing bias in relation to official interest rates despite the market continuing to price in cuts in interest rates.
Majors: The Federal Reserve is clearly not feeling very optimistic about the outlook for the US economy, noting there are "significant downside risks".
Such comments about the outlook for the world's largest economy did little to help what was already shaky market confidence. In trying to address the problem, the Fed announced plans to replace short term debt with longer term treasuries. Equity markets across the Northern
Hemisphere fell, with both the DJIA and the German DAX falling 2.5%, while the FTSE closed 1.4% lower. The expectation is for our local equity market to put in a similar performance today.
Given all the turmoil, investors once again retreated to the traditional "safe-haven" of the USD. Expect this trend to continue as long as the uncertainty persists.
Economic Calendar 22 Sept 2011
22 SEPT AU RBA's Lowe speak at Australia Economic Forum
EU Euro-zone Consumer Confidence SEPT
US Initial Jobless Claims w/c 11 SEPT
US House Price Index JUL
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