Bell FX Currency Outlook: After a dip overnight to below 1.0400 the Australian Dollar has recovered to the low 1.0400's as the quiet trading of the last few days continued.
Australia: After a bout of short term weakness the AUD has started trading to similar levels as yesterday. Equity markets were only modestly lower last night with the Dow and S&P500 both down 0.2% and the NASDAQ down 0.6% after European equities fell slightly more (Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.7% and the German DAX by 0.5%) after the German Ifo survey which measures the "business climate" was lower than expected.

In Australia, the general government underlying cash deficit for the financial year ending June 30, 2012 was reported as a deficit of AUD43.7bn which is AUD661m smaller than the predicted deficit when the 2012-2013 budget was brought down in May. The deficit has narrowed for the second year in a row but still stands at 3% of annual GDP.

Treasurer Swan repeated the government's intention to return the budget to surplus in this current year although the task is becoming harder as commodity prices decline and potentially provide less income to companies which may force the government to wind back some of their present spending programs.

Interestingly, employee income tax withholding receipts were higher than projected while company tax receipts were lower.

Majors: The big news overnight was from the German Ifo business climate survey which saw the index move lower for the fifth consecutive month in a row with the index moving from 102.3 in August to 101.4 last month. This is lowest reading since February 2010. Business expectations also declined
which does not bode well for the immediate prospects of growth in the German economy.

This news release along with continued discussion on whether will Spain officially apply for a bailout and how it will be funded through a combination of ECB and ESM funding weighed on market sentiment.

In the background, concerns about what Portugal's government budget will look like also added to the uncertain tone. These issues weakened the EUR slightly which helped the AUDEUR cross rate improve slightly.

Later today German Chancellor Merkel and ECB President Draghi will speak in Berlin and we will see a slew of home data from the US along
with the consumer confidence index for September.
Economic Calendar
24 SEPT AU RBA Financial Stability Review
AU RBA's Debelle Speaks
US Consumer Confidence
US House Price Index

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