Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/26/2011
The Australian Dollar opened at USD 0.9783 this week, finding support as the markets digest the IMF's policy board's weekend announcement, to act decisively and collectively, "to restore confidence and financial stability, and rekindle global growth".
Australia: The weekend's annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF saw policymakers under real pressure to provide solutions. The weekend didn't bring closure as such, but reports are emerging of a rescue plan from German and French authorities, with three main components.
Firstly, the recapitalisation of European banks, with those unable to get private funding tapping the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or even directly from the public purse (German and ECB officials seem to be opposed to this). Secondly, the EFSF would be increased to stop contagion to Italy and Spain and a fence around Greece, Portugal and Irish debt.
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Thirdly, there would be a managed default for Greece with a possible payout ratio of 50%. The plan is in all likelihood going to face
many hurdles in order to be passed by all EU authorities, particularly Germany, whose parliament vote shortly on ratifying the July agreement to expand the EFSF.
So that's the latest it seems, to follow the tumultuous week that was last week. Locally, A$71 billion was wiped off the Australian
equity market and the local AUD fell several US cents as the markets fretted the world economy was heading towards a recession. Falls in metals were severe, which is not necessarily good news for Australia.
Copper lost another 6% in Chicago alone. The cumulative fall since the recent late July high is now 25%. The markets will look to the RBA postmeeting statement next week. In Australia this week, markets will remain dominated by the global news flow.
Majors: In the US, stocks finished higher after Thursday night's rout. Commodities fell, WTI oil was off 0.8% to $79.85 while LME base metals lost 3.2%. The G-20 Washington communiqué released late Thursday was helpful, stating, "We will ensure that banks are adequately capitalized and have sufficient access to funding to deal with current risks". The reports suggest the G20 leaders have set themselves a six week deadline to resolve this crisis, with a credible, unified solution to be unveiled at the next G20 summit in Cannes on November 4.
China's sovereign wealth fund head said it was not their job to bail Europe out and the head of the central bank said that it was "unrealistic" to expect China to grow any faster than 8-10%. China has no significant data this week, while Europe and the US have a decent data flow throughout the week.
Economic Calendar
26 SEPT NZ Trade Balance AUG
US New Home Sales AUG
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