Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/28/2011
The AUD is trading just above USD 0.9900 today, a little higher than yesterday, as currency markets have managed to stabilise over the last couple of days.
Australia: Currency markets have found some measure of stability, a rare thing for all of us in a long time (!) as recent headlines have provided hope Europe may indeed have a credible plan to address the sovereign debt crisis. That said the markets will treat this phase purely as a "hopeful" one, rather than what actually will happen.
The sovereign debt crisis has been a real issue for a long time now, and there was a cheer when new
austerity measures were passed in Greece overnight. A new property tax was successfully introduced in the Greek Parliament and is seen as a critical stepping stone to potentially secure further international financial aid. At the moment, there is no doubt we operate in a headline by headline environment.
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Focus will zone in on how the various EU Governments will vote on the EFSF extensions, particularly the German vote on Thursday night and then the "plan" mentioned above, being worked on by policymakers, which involves leveraging the EFSF. Data flow is ever present, as the markets continue to grapple with what is actually happening, and what structural changes and policies are being determined.
Global economic data, whilst in spots being ordinary, cannot be described as really bad, but policy responses are very important. From here, USD0.9950 is key resistance and Australian HIA new home sales for August are released today.
Majors: European equity markets were very strong after the news described above, and importantly, German Chancellor Merkel stepped up her defence of the EUR ahead of tonight's vote by the German parliament on leveraging / expanding the EFSF. US equity markets closed higher, metals rose with copper up 4.5%, zinc up 4.9% and nickel up 5.3% and soft commodities also gained with wheat up 1.3% and cotton up 0.4%.
Data released in the US was good as well, with US consumer confidence rising to 45.4 in September and the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index improving. In Federal Reserve Governor Lockhart's speech, he said 'Operation Twist' will have only a modest impact on the economy.
Tonight in the US sees durable goods orders for August and the weekly mortgage applications while tomorrow morning Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks in Cleveland, Ohio.
Economic Calendar
28 SEPT US Fed's Bernanke speaks in Cleveland
US Durable Goods orders Aug
GER CPI Sep
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