Australian Dollar Outlook - 09/28/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is likely to range trade today following on from overnight events. Positive steps in Greece and Spain saw market take a positive tone.
Australia: The Australian Dollar is higher this morning as Chinese stimulus rumours and Spain's 2013 budget buoyed markets and supported the currency. The local unit appreciated against the US dollar as speculation on Thursday the Chinese government would announce measures to bolster the country's equity markets saw an afternoon rally.
The currency traded up to 1.0460 against the US dollar overnight to open slightly lower this morning with the Aussie likely to remain well supported today.
Domestically, Australian Private-sector credit data for August is due this morning; although markets will likely watch the release of Chinese manufacturing data due late today closely. The market is still evenly divided on when the next rate cut by the RBA will be and given the recent commentary by the RBA, next Tuesday's meeting is likely to be closely watched.
Majors: Markets reacted positively to Spain's fifth round of austerity overnight with a further EUR 40bn in spending cuts announced. The country is battling to reduce its fiscal deficit as the economy continues to contract and a quarter of the population remains unemployed.
The austerity will focus on spending cuts and is likely to ease the path for an ECB bailout to lower borrowing costs. Spanish bond yields fell with modest moves higher seen on European equities.
The FTSE and German DAX both ended the session 0.2% higher at 5,779 and 7,290. US equities also rose overnight supported by Spain's austerity and better than expected jobs data. The DJIA rose 0.5% to 13,486 with the S&P500 ending 1.0%
higher at 3,137.
On the data front the US Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 359k from 385k the previous week, while the US durable goods orders fell 13.2% in August.
The general positive tone overnight saw oil prices rise with both WTI and Brent futures rising 2.1% to USD $92.2 and USD
$112.3 per barrel. Spot gold rose 1.4% to USD 1,777 per ounce with base metals also stronger amid the general upbeat tone.
Economic Calendar
28 SEPT AU Private Sector Credit
EU Euro-zone CPI Estimite
US Fed's Fisher Speaks
US University Of Michigan Confidence