Australian Dollar Outlook - 10 January 2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The AUD is slightly stronger this morning, currently trading at USD1.0240, despite concerns over the European debt crisis resurfacing once again.
Australia: While a press conference last night saw Merkel and Sarkozy once again emphasise their support for a financial transaction tax and outlining the plan for the sign off of the stricter budgetary conditions, there was little new news.
Although the response from the comments was a positive one, with the AUD and the EUR/USD rallying; it is expected that the boost will be short-lived as investors realise that the debt situation in Europe is unchanged. Yesterday during our local session saw Australia's November Retail Sales data disappoint the markets.
In the lead up to the December and Christmas results, many were hopeful of a positive gain in sales, with markets expecting a 0.4% increase. Instead we posted a flat result for the month of November, showing that retail companies are still hurting. In
Australia today, we have the release of building approvals for November, with investors expecting a significant turnaround from last month's figures of -10.7%. Chinese trade data is also due for release today, and could have an impact on the AUD movements during our trading session. The expectation is for a decrease in both imports and exports for the region and should this be the case, we could see the AUD retreat back towards USD1.0200.
Majors: In the US last night, equity markets posted small gains after a late session rally. This could be due to the start of the reporting season kicking off tonight with Alcoa announcing their fourth quarter results after the close of the markets tonight. All of the major indices, S&P500, Nasdaq and the DOW finished 0.2% higher.
However, European equities weren't so fortunate, falling between 0.5% and 0.7%. As mentioned above, while the talks did give some hope to the markets overnight, disappointing data out of the region relinquished the gains. Germany, which is seen as the strength of the Euro-zone, posted weaker industrial production figures (- 0.6%) for November. Some believe this could see the German economy fall into recession for Q4 in 2011.
Economic Calendar
10 JAN AU Building Approvals
CH Import and exports
US Wholesale inventories
US NFIB Small business optimism