Australian dollar outlook 10/12/2010
Australia: The Australian Dollar has opened firmer this morning, to be trading just under the USD0.9850 level, after receiving a boost from yesterday’s jobs data. Australian employment reported a rise of 54,600 in November, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.2% from 5.4%. Given the continued hiring trend we are likely to see more consumer spending and this could put pressure on the RBA to hike rates in the second quarter of 2011. Base metals traded lower overnight, with copper down 0.7% aluminium -1.3% and nickel -1.7%. Gold edged higher to be trading at US$1,386.00 per ounce and oil was up 0.2% at US$88.49. Today there is no local data due for release though we expect the AUD to remain supported above the USD0.9800 level. All markets will be waiting for the key monthly Chinese data, which is due for release tomorrow, and like previous months, it is expected to surprise to the upside
Majors: In US equity markets overnight the Dow finished flat, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. The positive note from the overnight US session was the release of the US initial Jobless claims data, which fell 17k to 421k last week - the second lowest reading this year. However, investor mood was downbeat somewhat on reports of Democratic opposition to President Obama’s tax cut agreement with the Republicans. Meanwhile in the UK, the Bank of England kept the official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%, the FTSE closed up 0.2%, with banks leading the way. In Europe ratings agency Fitch downgraded Ireland to BBB+ from A+. Ireland PM Cowen said overnight that the coalition government will put the EU 85bn aid package from the EU-IMF to a parliamentary vote on December 15.
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