Bell FX Currency Outlook:
Volatility in the AUD has continued overnight; falling from a onemonth high of USD1.0370 back down to USD1.0150 this morning, as investors' confidence in a Euro-zone solution faded.

Australia: Comments from the German Finance Minister overnight confirming that there will not be an agreed upon solution at the end of this weeks' Euro-zone debt crisis summit caused people to trade out of their riskier positions in the AUD and into the safe haven USD.

The comments severely dented investor's hope that we may be close to overcoming the debt crisis which has plagued our markets for so long. As a result equity markets were lower across all continents; in the US the DOW was down 2.1% at 11402, and the S&P500 was also weaker 1.9%.

In Europe the worst performer was Germany's DAX, which was down 1.8%. Today the local markets will be solely focused on the release of the RBA's minutes from their October meeting, which saw the interest rate remain on hold at 4.75%. Despite the lack of movement in the interest rate, there was an obvious change in tone to the accompanying statement saying that there was room for potential monetary policy easing "should that prove necessary".

Many are hoping that there will be further clarification on these comments today and give the markets a more decisive indication on
whether there will be an interest rate cut at their November meeting. Currently markets are pricing in a cut of about 20bps.

Majors: Manufacturing data released out of the US overnight was on par with market expectations and showed that the sector is continuing to expand. Industrial production rose by 0.2% in September; with the manufacturing sector rising 0.4% and auto production up 0.3%. These results are positive and in contradiction to the recent manufacturing survey which indicated that the sector may be crumbling.

Back to Europe and concerns are now forming that the EUR/USD will be back below USD1.3000 before the end of the year. Late last night the EUR/USD was down more than a percent at USD1.3730.

The comments overnight from Germany's Finance Minister that "we will not have a definitive solution on the weekend" were further confirmed by Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman, who said that the latest package is not likely to solve everything.

Economic Calendar
18 OCT Aut RBA Minutes
China Retail Sales
China Industrial Production
China GDP