Australian Dollar Outlook- 10/21/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD has opened around USD1.0230 this morning, despite weaker base
metals which were heavily sold overnight.
Australia: There were concerns in the market that the French Banks may restrict credit lines for commodity / trade finance which saw Copper end
down 6.6%, Nickel down 4.2% and Aluminium down 4.5%. Yesterday locally saw the release of the NAB Business survey for the third quarter
which saw business confidence down -4 from +5 while business conditions came in at -3 from +2. With a lack of local data out tonight, it is expected that the AUD will continue to track equity markets and follow from any offshore developments in relation to the European debt crisis.
Majors: European markets finished lower, with the DAX down 2.5%, CAC down 2.3% and FTSE down 1.2% as investors worried whether Eurozone
leaders will be able to agree on how to solve the region's debt crisis.
Some media reports suggested that this weekend's summit of EU Leaders may be postponed, as rumours continued to circulate over divisions
between France and Germany on the steps needed to solve the regions debt crisis. The statement released by Germany and France says a solution to the crisis will be in place by Wednesday's second meeting.
Market anxiety remains high as the CBOE Volatility Index or "Fear Gauge" rose more than 1% overnight to almost 35, after already seeing a 10%
gain earlier in the week. The euro fell further after trading erratically in a tight range overnight. Meanwhile the Greek Prime Minister Papandreou
managed to get his government's final austerity bill through Parliamentary vote, allowing him the access the sixth tranche of bail-out funds. US
stocks closed with modest gains overnight after the Associated Press reported Sunday's meeting of the euro-zone leaders will be followed be a
second meeting on Wednesday.
The S&P has alternated between gains and losses over the past week as markets continue to watch for the latest news out of Europe and react to conflicting headlines. Better than expected US data supported the market as manufacturing data unexpectedly rose in October to 8.7 vs. a -9.0 expectation. US jobless claims also surprised to the better with claims falling last week to 403k.
Economic Calendar
21 OCT AU Import / Export price index Q3
EU Euro-zone Govt Debt / GDP Ratio JUL-05
EU ECB's Trichet and Stark speak in Warsaw