Australian Dollar Outlook - 10/24/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The AUD has opened above 1.0300 this morning, as financial markets continued to look for a positive resolution of the European debt crisis, following the weekend's EU emergency summit.
Australia: Although no formal announcements have been made, and will not be made until the next summit to be held Wednesday night Australian time, financial markets are hopeful the three major issues will be addressed viz: 1) further write-downs and restructure of Greek sovereign debt; 2) recapitalisation of the EU banking sector; and 3) some plan to limit the spread of potential sovereign defaults in Italy and Spain.
With the markets looking for good news, the AUD benefitted, as did equity markets in Europe and the US. The German DAX was higher by 3.5% and the S&P 500 was up by 1.9% to 1,238, with the Dow pushing ahead by 2.3% to 11,809, as Q3 earnings reports generally met or exceeded analysts' predictions.
Base metals had a strong recovery on Friday night after some of the drubbing they have taken lately with copper up 6.1% and lead by
7%. With the USD generally weaker across the board, WTI crude oil kicked up by 2.5% to above US$87 a barrel, although Brent crude was
slightly off at US$109 a barrel and gold rose to US$1642 an ounce.
Today we will see the release of Q3 PPI which is expected to be 0.8% qoq and 2.9% yoy which precedes the Q3 CPI on Wednesday.
Majors: At the EU summit on the weekend it appears Germany has managed to be successful in its push to not use the EFSF (European Financial Stabilisation Fund) to fund bank recapitalisations. Reports indicate that this will be the role initially of national governments. The market is expecting a lot of the EU summit and most analysts agree that there will likely be disappointments in the package that is eventually announced.
The USD continues to be weak, with the JPY hitting a post WWII high against the USD and the real possibility exists again of the
Bank of Japan intervening in the market to temper its rise. Later this week the central banks of Japan and Canada meet with no rate changes expected. The eyes of the financial world continued to be focused on Europe as they have been for recent months. We expect that markets could be very volatile leading up to and after the conclusion of Wednesday's EU summit meeting.
Economic Calendar
24 OCT NZ AU Labour Day Public Holiday
EU PMI Manufacturing / Services / Composite OCT
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index SEP
AU Producer Price Index Q3