Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian dollar has opened trading around the USD1.0430 level this morning after another choppy session in the offshore markets.

Australia: Today the market will be firmly focused on the Australian CPI data due at 11.30am, which should spark some movement in the AUD following the release. Given recent comments from the RBA that suggest they could look to cut rates as early as next month, a headline reading of 0.5% or lower is likely to give weight to a possible rate cut.

The market is currently pricing in an 80% chance that the RBA will cut rates at its November meeting, and given yesterday's comments by RBA official Battellino that the Australian economy continues to be robust, this pricing may be a bit aggressive.

Should the CPI reading come in higher than expected, it is likely we'll see the AUD test higher levels based on current market positioning.

Base metals ended the session lower overnight with copper down 1.4%, nickel down 1.2% and aluminium up 0.2%. Gold ended up 3.1% at US$1,703.20 an ounce while oil ended up 1.85 at US $92.90 a barrel.

Majors: Equity markets traded lower in Europe as the EU Finance Ministers meeting, which was due to be held, was cancelled without explanation. Investors took a risk-off approach given the previous day's gains as they await the release of tonight's EU Summit to provide details of the EFSF, bank re-capitalisation and extent of Greek creditor haircuts.

In the US overnight equity markets followed Europe to end lower with the DOW ending down 1.7%, the Nasdaq down 2.3% and the S&P down
2.0%.

Data out of the US overnight included the release of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which came in at 39.8 from 46.4, and
well below the market expectations of 46.0, with the recent economic uncertainty and financial volatility over the previous few months likely to
have weighed on the result.

Economic Calendar

26 OCT AUS CPI 3Q
US New Home Sales Sep
US Durable Goods Orders Sep