Australian Dollar Outlook - 10/28/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The Australian dollar has surged more than two cents this morning, currently trading around USD1.0700 after hitting a high of USD1.0750 overnight.
Australia: The local unit followed the positive lead from Wall Street with US equities chalking up a second day of hefty gains. Equities and commodities rallied as the European policymakers announced their plan to resolve the debt crisis plaguing Europe. The rescue fund was boosted to 1 trillion Euros with investors agreeing on voluntary write-down of 50 precent on Greek Debt.
Despite the agreement, this will only reduce Greece's debt to GDP ratio to 120% by 2020, from its current level of 160%. The plan still requires further clarification, but another measure being put in place sees the requirement for banks to build capital buffers of 9% by June
2012.
Base Metals were firmer overnight with copper leading the rally surging 6.1%, lead (+6.0%), nickel (+4.1%) and zinc up (+4.9%). Gold rallied as the US dollar was sold off to end up 1.2% at USD1,744.85 per ounce, while oil rose 2.8% to USD112.00 per barrel. Expect the Australian dollar to remain firm today with improved investor risk appetite.
Majors: As mentioned above US equity markets rallied strongly with Dow up 2.9% and the S&P 500 up 3.4%; its biggest monthly rally since 1974
and erasing all its losses in 2011. US GDP rose to an annualised rate of 2.5%.
Private consumption rose 2.4% annualised and private investment was up 4.1% annualised. The large jump was mainly driven by business
investment which rose by 13.7% annualised. US weekly jobless claims fell to 402k from 404k the previous week in line with market expectations.
The EURUSD jumped above 1.4200 for the first time since September as the announcement of the plan saw the USD sold across the board.