Australian Dollar Outlook 10/8/2010
Australia: The AUD has opened slightly weaker this morning currently trading at USD 0.9160 as many investors square up some positions before the Federal Reserve's meeting tonight.
The AUD attempted overnight to break through the USD 0.9200 but was unable to trade through this level as concerns over the announcement tonight reduced the demand for riskier currencies such as the AUD.
While it's widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates at historical lows, recently there have been comments made that indicate there may be a restart of some of their stimulus programs, including the purchase of mortgage backed securities.
The uncertainty in investors saw some mild USD strength which took the wind out of the AUD.
Today sees the release of the NAB Business surveys which will give an indication to how the domestic economy is fairing prior to Thursday's employment data.
This data is unlikely to have much weight on the AUD today with more interest paid to the start of the Chinese data; with their trade balance data due out this afternoon.
Majors: While the uncertainty continues as to the economic recovery in the US, Europe had some very impressive data released overnight.
Euro-zone investor confidence for August posted a very impressive rise to 8.5 which was much greater than the expectations of an increase in the index to 1.6.
This is the highest level since late 2007 which shows that the Euro-zone is moving past its recent sovereign debt issues and working towards firming up the regions economy.
Germany also showed its strength with the release of its Trade Balance data which posted a surplus of EUR14.1bio, greater than the EUR12.5bio that was expected by the markets.
The main influence was the strong export growth rising 3.8% compared to expectations of 1.5% increase.
With these results it's highly likely that Germany will post a 1% increase in GDP growth for Q2. Despite the positive news out of the region the EUR/USD was slightly weaker opening this morning USD1.3220.
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