Australian Dollar Outlook - 11/07/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The AUD has opened just above 1.0410 as the financial world follows the developments in Europe. The Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down as leader to form coalition government while the G-20 summit concluded without agreement to use IMF SDR funding to fund the EFSF.
Australia: These events overshadowed the release of US non-farm payrolls for October which rose by 80k which was less than forecast of 95k but upward revisions were made in the two previous months of 104k which was an underlying positive sign. The unemployment fell slightly to 9.1%
from 9.2% in the previous month. Equity markets were weaker in Europe as the Cannes based G-20 talks proceeded with the German DAX down
by 2.7%. The major US indices fell slightly with the S&P 500 down 0.6% to 1253 and the Dow down by 0.5% to 11,983. This week there is a slew of
data that will point to the health of the Australian economy.
With predictions the Australian federal budget may not return to surplus until 2014-2015, eyes will be on the construction index and job ads today followed by the trade figures for September and consumer confidence index tomorrow, housing finance on Wednesday and then our employment data on Thursday. Mid-week we will hear from China on their recent figures for CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production and trade. We see
the AUD consolidating today in and around 1.0400.
Majors: On Sunday, the Greek PM Papandreou agreed to form a new coalition government with an opposition leader Antonis Samaras after the
EU gave Greece 24 hours to form a unity government as a precondition to accessing further EU bailout funds. The new leader will be announced
later today. The USDEUR has remained relatively stable above 1.3800 after the G-20 could not reach agreement to allow the IMF to use SDR
funding for the benefit on the EFSF.
The German government objected to this and the action failed. Italy captured some of the attention during the G-20 with Berlusconi turning down IMF aid but allowing the IMF to monitor the country's budget reforms Berlusconi is increasing under attack at home with a number of defectors from his party as Italian bond yields hit the highest point since the euro was formed in 1999 at 6.40% pa.
Economic Calendar
07 NOV UK Lloyds Employment Confide OCT
EC Euro Zone Retail Sales SEP
US Consumer Credit SEP
AU ANZ Job Advertisements OCT