Australian Dollar Outlook - 11/09/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The AUD has been steady since yesterday morning and is trading at USD 1.0375 as European politics dominated headlines and focus.
Australia: The markets waited to hear that Italy's Prime Minister Berlusconi would be forced out and there would also be a new Greek Prime Minister (rumoured to be former ECB member Lucas Papademos).
The Italian PM lost his absolute majority and agreed to resign after Italy's new budget law and fiscal austerity measures are passed in parliament next week. Berlusconi secured 308 votes in the 630 seat parliament and on the back of this result, Italian President Napolitano will commence meetings with major political parties and a probable scenario being an election. Finishing with
Greece, should Papademos be appointed to lead a coalition, it seems likely the markets will react positively. Today we look to China and their monthly release of data with inflation top of the list.
Should inflation be softening, and external demand be weakening, then an easing in monetary policy by China is absolutely on the cards in the form of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. In Australia, housing finance data for September is at 11.30 AEST and we expect the AUD to hold its ground for now with official jobs data from the ABS on Thursday being important data.
The figures are expected to show total employment to have increased by 10k in October and the unemployment rate having risen to 5.3% from 5.2% in September. We feel that if this happens, the AUD could test key support levels on the downside.
Majors: In a night focussed squarely on European politics, US Treasuries dipped below 2% on several occasions in volatile conditions but rose late in the session after it was announced Berlusconi would resign. US equities rallied and European equities rose strongly during the session. Oil rose, gold eased slightly, base metals were mixed and soft commodity prices were generally higher.
We watch the Australian and Chinese data today and there is second tier UK/US data tonight and Federal Chairman Bernanke is speaking on smallbusiness, a key component of the US economy's hopeful recovery.
Economic Calendar
09 NOV AUS Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Nov
CH CPI Oct
CH Retail Sales Oct
CH PPI Oct