Australian Dollar Outlook - 11/10/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
Another volatile session for financial markets overnight as the European debt crisis continues to grab all the headlines.
Australia: Italy is the main focus of market attention currently, with investors becoming increasingly concerned about the country's ability to pay its debt. As a result the EUR has been sold down significantly, taking the AUD and NZD with it. The AUD looks at risk of breaking back below USD1.0100 today, which could open the door for a move back through parity should the situation in Europe continue to deteriorate.
Of interest today for local markets will be the release of October labour force data due out at 11.30 AEDT. Market expectations are for an increase of approx. 10k in the number of employed with the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% from 5.2% last month. With markets already pricing in another 25bp cut from the RBA in the near future, due mainly to the uncertainty surrounding the global growth outlook, a weak unemployment number would just about guarantee another move in the official cash rate at the next RBA meeting in December.
Majors: Despite an initial positive reaction to the news that Silvio Berlusconi had offered to resign, investor sentiment turned sour overnight and the uncertainty surrounding the political and economic outlook saw Italian 10 year bond yields trade close to 7.5%. Equity markets throughout the Northern hemisphere were sold off sharply with the DJIA down by over 3.0%, the DAX down 2.2% and the FTSE down by 1.9%. Base metals and
soft commodities were also lower across the board.
The major concern about the situation in Italy is that, unlike Greece, Italy's debt of approx. EUR1.9trillion, is considered too high to be bailed out by its European counterparts. It would also appear that the political uncertainty in Greece is far from resolved, with Greek politicians failing to name a new prime minister.
Economic Calendar
10 NOV AU Employment Change OCT
AU Unemployment Rate OCT
CH Import / Exports OCT
US Trade Balance SEPT