Australian Dollar Outlook 11/22/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
Risk aversion was the flavour of the trading session last night as concerns briefly shifted from Europe to the US as their deadline for deficit reduction looms.
Australia: The AUD hit a 6-week low overnight and is currently trading around USD0.9840, as investors flocked to the USD in a safe haven trade. It seems that US politicians are not going to reach an agreement prior to the November 23 deadline on cutting the US budget deficit and extending the stimulus measures into next year; which caused quite a bit of concern for the markets.
As a result equity markets were down across the board; in the US the DOW was down 1.8% after staging a small rebound late in trading. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq were also both down 1.5%.
Commodities also felt the effects with gold down 2.4% at USD$1,682.73 per ounce; copper down 2.9%. Other base metals including lead, zinc and aluminium were also weaker; with nickel the only metal to post a positive result. Despite a lack of data due out locally today, we expect that the AUD will remain under pressure during today's trading session as our equity markets follow the overnight trend south.
Majors: This demand for the USD has surprised many, as in recent times the US have reported some much improved data, hinting that their economy may be showing signs of life. The fact that despite the positive data, we are still seeing an increase in demand for the USD indicates that many are seriously concerned of the outcome, should the US congress not come up with a solution. The positive data in the US continued overnight with existing home sales rising 1.4% for the month of October; well above market expectations of a decrease of 2.2%. While majority of the attention was on the US overnight, markets are still wary of the sovereign debt issues in Europe.
Much like the US, their equity markets were also significantly weaker with Germany's DAX down 3.3% at 5606 and the FTSE 100 down 2.6%.
Tonight sees the release of the US FMOC Minutes from their last meeting as well as the Euro-zone Consumer Confidence for November, with the result likely to show how the recent issues in the region have impacted on the consumers.
Economic Calendar
22 NOV US GDP 3Q
US Personal Consumption
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
US FOMC Minutes