Australian Dollar Outlook - 11/23/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The Australian Dollar has fallen further and is trading at USD 0.9835 as persistent concerns about the Euro Zone's sovereign debt crisis create more uncertainty in global financial markets.
Australia: Stock markets fell overnight after developments in Europe. Spain's borrowing costs have soared to 14-year highs at its first debt auction since the Right won the weekend elections. The Spanish Treasury raised $A4 billion (equivalent) in an auction of three and six-month bills overnight, but had to offer yields of more than 5%, which is far higher than at the previous comparable sale on October 25 of 2.29%.
Spanish 10-year bonds are up to 6.61% while Italian 10-year bonds are up to 6.82%. There are rumours the ECB bought more Italian debt. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and major credit rating agencies warned Spain of a daunting reform task ahead if the new government is to change market perceptions.
What does this mean for the AUD? Well you would think only one thing and that is it has to be trading lower. Not only is the AUD being impacted by the European financial crisis, but there is also the fiscal crisis in the US with the US government committee unable to reach a decision on cutting debt.
Locally, the House of Representatives passed the mining tax bills 73-71 and today in Australia, the Construction Work Done figures
for the September quarter are released. Also this morning, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks in Sydney. The Chinese manufacturing PMI is released this afternoon so looking at this week, keep an eye on the AUD as it closes in on support at 0.9810 and should this give way, there is a chance it could clear the way for a visit to the mid 0.9000's.
Majors: The markets stumbled last night on Europe and also some weaker than expected US Q3 GDP data (revised lower to an annualised pace of 2.0% from the first estimate of 2.5%). US FOMC Minutes said growth will remain moderate and still subject to significant downside risks with some Fed members believing more easing will be needed, while officials are also examining a wide range of communication and policy strategies.
Tonight, key manufacturing data in Europe, with the November PMI's expected to confirm weakening activity across the region, while the Bank of England releases the Minutes from the November policy meeting.
In the US, there is a series of data releases ahead of the Thanksgiving Day long weekend including durable goods, personal income & spending, jobless claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence.
Economic Calendar
23 NOV Aust RBA Debelle speaks
China HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI
US Durable Goods
US Initial Jobless Claims