Australian Dollar Outlook - 12/20/2011
The death of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-II has brought further uncertainty to an already fragile market. As a result, the AUD and equity markets were lower across the board.
Australia: When the news surfaced late during our trading session yesterday, markets immediately reacted negatively, as concerns over the transaction of leadership to Kim-Jong's successor, his son Kim Jung-un, and the nuclear weapons that they control.
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Reports are that test firings of missiles have already occurred in the past 48 hours. Comments out of Europe regarding the ECB's inability to further purchase European bonds also dented the confidence of markets which assisted in the weakness.
The major US equity markets were all down around 1%, while in Europe the losses weren't as significant, with the DAX down 0.5% and the FTSE 100 down 0.4%. Today locally, all eyes will be focussed on the RBA's minutes from the December meeting; where the RBA decreased interest rates once again by 25bps.
Close attention will be paid to the decision, and whether the cut was a closely debated one; as well as the likelihood for a further cut come February. The AUD is expected to come under continuing pressure over the next few days, and be fairly reactive to
overseas news.
Majors: It is thought that the news regarding the Korean leader's death could see appetite grow for the USD, as investors play the safe-haven trade, and wait to see what the fall out of his death will mean for the country.
While his 20-something year old son has been hailed the successor, it isn't expected to be a smooth transition, and this is what is causing concerns in the market.
As mentioned above, the ECB's Draghi has reiterated their position in terms of extending their European bond purchase; that they cannot legally partake due to the ECB's founding treaty. While the EUR/USD is currently trading below USD1.3000, we don't expect too much volatility until further news regarding the regions rescue package is released.
Economic Calendar
20 DEC AUS RBA Board Minutes
GE Producer Price Index
UK Consumer Confidence
US Housing Starts