Australian Dollar Outlook 13/9/2010
Australia: The AUD continues to move higher on the back of better than expected data out of China on Friday and broke 0.9300 early this morning.
China's August figures for their trade surplus, property prices, new lending, retail sales and industrial production were all better than expected indicating that after a recent lull in the Chinese growth rate their economy continues to power ahead.
With a rise in imports indicating strong internal demand the trade surplus fell from US$28.7bn in July to US$20bn in August.
Also adding to the firmer bias for the AUD were better than expected US inventory data in July (up 1.4% as compared to projections of 0.4% mom).
This helped move equity markets higher in the US for the seventh gain out of the last eight trading sessions with the Dow and S&P 500 all up about 0.5%. Base metals were generally lower but crude oil rose by over US$2 a barrel to US$76.45 after a leak shutdown a Canada to US pipeline.
Gold is little changed at US$1,246 an ounce. The AUD looks like it could move close to the 0.9400 level in coming days.
Locally, consumer sentiment, business surveys, skilled job vacancies and Q2 dwelling starts are out tomorrow and Wednesday.
Majors: Adding to the generally firmer tone in markets on Friday was President Obama's intention to extend the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts for people earning US$250k or less as well as India's industrial production for July which rose 13.8% as compared to 5.8% in June.
The AUD cross rates against EUR and GBP continue to track higher after little movement against the USD some of which is due to the results released on the weekend regarding banking regulations to be enacted under the Basel III accord.
Banks have to keep an extra 3% of capital over current levels but there will be an 8-year transition period for this to occur.
A slightly negative factor for the EUR/USD is the need for the German bank Hypo Real Estate to raise another EUR40bn in state guarantees.