Australian Dollar Outlook - 15 August 2014

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is a little higher as risk appetite improved overnight.

Australia: In what was another fairly quiet session in global currency markets, the general tone was risk-on with equities, emerging currencies and commoditity currencies (such as the AUD and NZD) generally in positive territory.

The AUD is currently trading around 0.9315, off from highs of 0.9327, modestly higher than the 0.9300 level seen this time yesterday. With not much happening on the domestic front, it was offshore news that drove markets as Ukraine opened the door to a compromise over humanitarian aid arriving on hundreds of trucks from Russia, saying it could accept the supplies if the Red Cross distributed them in the nation's war-torn eastern regions. No data is due to be released today in Australia or Asia so it looks to be a quiet day.

Majors: It was another night of disappointing European data as German GDP missed expectations, coming out at -0.2% QoQ (expected flat), a
particular worry given it is Europe's largest economy. French GDP also missed, coming out flat QoQ (0.1% expected), while Eurozone CPI and GDP also both missed by 0.1%. Dispite all this the EUR and GBP finished the session flat, while European equities gained ground.

The USD is up against the yen, along with US equities as a further indicator of improved risk sentiment. It should be a quiet session in Europe with the Assumption Day being observed in several nations,although there is a major data release in the UK in the form of GDP.

Meanwhile in the US, PPI, New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and industrial production are all being released.
Economic Calendar
15 AUG UK GDP QoQ/YoY 2Q
US Empire Manufacturing Aug
US PPI Final Demand MoM/YoY Jul
US Industrial Production MoM Jul

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