Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar continued its slide over the weekend after some figures from China were softer than expected.

Australia: The AUD has continued its downward path and opens the week around the .9000 level as the pressure on our currency continues as

the latest figures out of the US are slightly better than expected and some weekend economic releases from China were lower than expected. On

Friday, we saw new yuan loans rise by RMB703bn in August which was up from a very low figure in July but money supply growth as measured by

M2 was higher 12.8% yoy which is below the central bank target of 13% annual growth.

Weekend figures from China were less than expected with industrial production rising 6.9% yoy versus the market expectation of an 8.8% increase. July's figure came in at 9%. Electricity production fell 2.2% yoy which points to weakness in the heavy industry sector and retail sales (+11.9%) and fixed asset investment (+16.5%) were also below expectations. Many analysts are now doubting whether China can meet their GDP growth target of 7.5% for this year.

This is adding to the pressure on the AUD since China is our largest trading partner. Tomorrow we will see the latest minutes from the last RBA meeting and on Thursday the RBA's quarterly bulletin will be released.

Majors: In the US, on Friday we saw retail sales for August were in line with expectations rising 0.6% but July's figures which were flat initially were revised upward to 0.3%. The consumer confidence survey from the University of Michigan came in at 84.6 which was up from last month's

figure of 82.5 and the 83.3 figure predicted. All eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision and the language attached to it when they meet on

Wednesday night our time.

With better numbers continuing to come out of the US, expectations of the first interest rate rise in years before mid 2015 might increase. On Friday, industrial production figures rose by 1% in July for the Eurozone which might lead to a better than expected GDP figure for the current quarter. The GBP is likely to remain volatile ahead of Thursday's vote for Scottish independence from the UK. Today Japanese markets will be closed for a public holiday.

Economic Calendar

15 SEPT NZ Performance Services Index

EC Trade Balance SA / NSA

CA Existing Home Sales MoM

US Industrial Production MoM

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