Australian dollar outlook 15/2/2011
Australia: The AUD is currently treading water just above the parity level this morning prior to the Chinese data which is due to be released today.
Early during yesterday's trading session the AUD fell belowUSD1.0000, but managed to firm up after the release ofsome positive local housing data. The figures releasedshowed that the number of home loans rose for the sixthstraight month. New home loans rose 2.1% for December,which follows a 2.5% rise in November.
During today's session, the main focus is the Chinese CPI data. Leaks this morning have indicated that the inflation measure maycome in lower at 4.9% compared an expected rise of5.4%.
Should the data be weaker this will decrease the likelihood of further tightening in China's monetary policy.Investors will also be waiting the release of the RBA'smonetary policy minutes from their February meeting, where interest rates were once again left on hold.
Comments from Governor Stevens during last weeks parliamentary enquiry indicated that he was happy wherethe interest rates are currently and that he didn't foreseean imminent rate rise.
Majors: Yesterday China also released some tradesurplus data for January. The figure halved to USD6.5biowith the fall attributed to a surge in imports as demand forhard and soft commodities increased significantly. Exportsalso posted gains rising by 37.7%.
Such strong growth inimports indicates that China's domestic economy remainsbuoyant. The GBP/USD has been fairly steady of lateawaiting the release of the top tier data due out over theweek. With the expectations that the results may surpriseon the upside, the GBP/USD has opened this morning stronger at 1.6035.
Today sees the release of the UK CPIand then further inflation reports out tomorrow night. The EUR/USD has weakened, currently trading below USD1.3500 as concerns over the banking region once again surfaced during the offshore session.
Whispers regarding a possible restructure in one of German's state owned banks has seen the demand for the EUR fall, showing its vulnerability when banks are involved.